February 28, 2007

Asian shares close mostly lower on Chinese fall yesterday; Shanghai rebounds


Feb. 28, 2007

Shares across the Asia-Pacific region closed mostly lower after the steep drop on Chinese markets yesterday followed by the fall on Wall St overnight -- although the Shanghai markets bounced back today on bargain hunting, dealers said.

Tokyo shares ended sharply lower. Dealers said some investors showed an appetite for buying, so reducing the losses, while others stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see how the markets in Europe and the US perform tonight.

The blue chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average finished 515.80 points or 2.85 pct lower at 17,604.12, off a low of 17,382.79 and a high of 17,843.61.

The TOPIX index of all first-section issues dropped 58.59 points or 3.23 pct to settle at 1,752.74, off a low of 1,719.15 and a high of 1,785.05.

Hiroichi Nishi, equity chief general manager at Nikko Cordial Securities, said investors had been 'waiting for some trigger for adjustment.' A sharp rise in the yen also weighed on the market, he said. Nishi said that after a slight rise in the Shanghai market today, the Tokyo market had recouped some of its losses, but investors were waiting to see how the US and European markets performed.

Australian shares closed sharply lower following an 8.8 pct slump on the Shanghai market yesterday and the fall on Wall St, dealers said.

Dealers said few Australian companies avoided the negative sentiment today, including the index leading resource stocks BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto which have large exposures to the Chinese resource-led boom.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 161.3 points or 2.69 pct at 5,832.5 - now well below Monday's record close of 6,044.0. The index managed to end above the day's low of 5,786.8.

Over February, the key index remained up 59.1 points or 1.00 pct despite today's sell-off and continued to hold a 162.7 point or 2.9 pct gain for investors so far in 2007.

Hong Kong shares were sharply lower in afternoon trade in response to the falls in mainland China and Wall St, dealers said.

They said the budget speech of Hong Kong Financial Secretary Henry Tang provided good news with tax relief measures but failed to lift the market due to prevailing concerns over US and China bourses.

At 3.45 pm the Hang Seng Index was down 460.82 points or 2.29 pct at 19,687.05.

In mainland China, A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed sharply higher on the back of bargain-hunting after yesterday's slump, with property, telecom and power stocks leading the gainers, dealers said.

Nearly 200 companies closed up by their daily limits of 10 pct.

'The market was boosted by bargain-hunting interest after yesterday's plunge, as investors were reassured by the government's denial of a rumored tax on stock investment gains,' said Wang Mingzhi, an analyst at GF Securities.

According to the rumors, the government was to impose taxes on capital gains from stock investment income. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced today that there are no plans to levy such a tax.

Analysts said the slump yesterday is temporary and it will be a matter of time before the market picks up again.

'The slump is only a temporary thing. Soon people will realize that nothing has changed - liquidity is still abundant, the yuan is still rising and corporate earnings are still growing, so the long-term prospects are still promising,' said Wu Dazhong, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities.

The Shanghai A-share Index was up 114.99 points or 3.95 pct to 3,025.75 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 29.06 points or 3.94 pct at 767.35.

Seoul shares closed sharply lower on broad sell offs, with sentiment undermined by the sharp corrections seen across global stock markets, dealers said.

The market tumbled by nearly four pct to fall through the 1,400 point level at one stage, with downbeat current account and industrial output data fuelling the decline, they added.

The KOSPI index closed down 37.26 points or 2.56 pct, at the day's best level of 1,417.34. The low was 1,393.96.

February 23, 2007

Handy Personal Finance Spreadsheets

Handy Personal Finance Spreadsheets

Good personal finance spreadsheets are hard to find on the web because sploggers monopolize the search results. Still, I’ve managed to collect links to a stack of them that I’d like to share.

Spreadsheets more useful than web-based calculators because:

  • You can modify the fields and formats to meet your own needs,
  • You can create “what-if” scenarios by making copies of a sheet, and
  • You can save the data for later use.

The following links are all real sites from real people with real useful information to share.

There must be thousands of other great personal finance spreadsheets out there. I’ll share the best of those I find.

February 21, 2007

FX Trading The Martingale Way

Imagine a trading strategy that is practically 100% profitable - would you be interested? Most traders will probably reply with a resounding "Yes", especially since such a strategy does exist and dates all the way back to the eighteenth century. This strategy is based on probability theory and if your pockets are deep enough, it has a near 100% success rate. Known in the trading world as the martingale, this strategy was most commonly practiced in the gambling halls of Las Vegas casinos and is the main reason why casinos now have betting minimums and maximums and why the roulette wheel has two green markers (0 and 00) in addition to the odd or even bets. The problem with this strategy is that in order to achieve 100% profitability, you need to have very deep pockets - in some cases, they must be infinitely deep. Unfortunately, no one has infinite wealth, but with a theory that relies on mean reversion, one missed trade can bankrupt an entire account.Also, the amount risked on the trade is far greater than the potential gain. Despite these drawbacks, there are ways to improve the martingale strategy. In this article, we'll explore the ways you can improve your chances of succeeding at this very high risk and difficult strategy.

What is Martingale Strategy?
Popularized in the eighteenth century, the martingale was introduced by a French mathematician by the name of Paul Pierre Levy. The martingale was originally a type of betting style that was based on the premise of "doubling down". Interestingly enough, a lot of the work done on the martingale was by an American mathematician named Joseph Leo Doob, who sought to disprove the possibility of a 100% profitable betting strategy.
The mechanics of the system naturally involve an initial bet; however, each time the bet becomes a loser, the wager is doubled such that, given enough time, one winning trade will make up all of the previous losses. The introduction of the 0 and 00 on the roulette wheel was used to break the mechanics of the martingale by giving the game more than two possible outcomes other than the odd vs. even or red vs. black. This made the long-run profit expectancy of using the martingale in roulette negative and thus destroyed any incentive for using it.
To understand the basics behind the martingale strategy, let's take a look at a simple example. Suppose that we had a coin and engaged in a betting game of either head or tails with a starting wager of $1. There is an equal probability that the coin will land on a head or tails and each flip is independent, meaning that the previous flip does not impact the outcome of the next flip. As long as you stick with the same directional view each time, you would eventually, given an infinite amount of money, see the coin land on heads and regain all of your losses plus $1. The strategy is based on the premise that only one trade is needed to turn your account around.

Trading Application
You may think that the long string of losses such as in the above example would represent unusually bad luck, but when you trade currencies, they tend to trend and trends can last for a very long time if you are caught in the wrong direction. However, the key with martingale when applied to trading is that by "doubling down" you in essentially lower your average entry price. In the example below, at two lots, you need the EUR/USD to rally from 1.2630 to 1.2640 to break even. As the price moves lower and you add four lots, you only need it to rally to 1.2625 instead of 1.2640 to break even. The more lots you add, the lower your average entry price. Even though you may lose 100 pips on the first lot of the EUR/USD if the price hits 1.2550, you only need the currency pair to rally to 1.2569 to break even on your entire holdings. This is also a clear example of why deep pockets are needed. If you only have $5,000 to trade, you would be bankrupt before you were even able to see the EUR/USD reach 1.2550. The currency may eventually turn, but with the martingale strategy, there are many cases when you may not have enough money to keep you in the market long enough to see that end.

Minding the Risk
As attractive as the martingale strategy may sound to some traders, we stress that grave caution is needed for those who attempt to practice this style of trading. The main problem with this strategy is that oftentimes, that sure-fire trade may blow up your account before you can turn a profit - or even recoup your losses. In the end, traders must question whether they are willing to lose most of their account equity on a single trade. Given that they must do this to average much smaller profits, many feel that the martingale trading strategy is entirely too risky for their tastes.

February 9, 2007

25 Rules to Grow Rich By

Follow these guidelines and feel confident that you'll be making the right financial decisions.

1. For return on investment, the best home renovation is to upgrade an old bathroom. Kitchens come in second.
The return on investment on a mid-range bath modernization is 102% of its cost. Kitchens can add about 90% of their costs to the home's value.

Another home improvement that can pay off is window replacement. Not only does this job return about 90% on investment when the house is resold, it saves on energy bills every year.

As a rule, upscale improvements pay off at lower rates than mid-range or inexpensive ones. And making a house bigger and more luxurious that those of your neighbors will also cost a lot more than they'll return when the house is sold.

2. It's worth refinancing your mortgage when you can cut your interest rate by at least one point.
There are transaction costs and fees involved in any refinancing that must be either paid out of pocket or added to the mortgage principal. Some of those costs can be considerable. Title insurance can easily run into four figures and broker fees can be expensive as well.

Like many things in life, timing is everything here. Is your job likely to relocate soon? Will you need a bigger house in the next couple of years? Unless you're planning to stay in the home for a while, the benefits of a lower monthly bill may not be worth the additional expenses that refinancing generates.

3. Spend no more than 2 1/2 times your income on a home. For a down payment, it's best to come up with at least 20%.
Many buyers in recent years have stretched the limits of affordability, and have bypassed the traditional 20% down model. But make a smaller down payment, and most lenders will require you to have private mortgage insurance (PMI), which adds a minimum 0.5% of the loan amount to your mortgage payments, about $1,000 more a year on a $200,000 principal.

4. Your total housing payments should not exceed 28% of your gross income. Total debt payments should come in under 36%.
These guidelines include payment on all loans, such as school and auto loans and credit card debt.

Also remember to take into account other home-related expenses to judge a house's affordability. Property and school taxes, home insurance and energy costs and requirements can vary considerably around the nation.

Try to estimate future maintenance costs and work them into your budget. Some homes, especially older ones, may require more regular upkeep than homes built with more modern materials. Roofs, siding and heating, cooling, plumbing, and electric services may have to be replaced within a few years of purchase.

5. Never hire a roofer, driveway paver or chimney sweep who is going door to door.
Even if these contractors aren't scam artists, they may lack licensing and insurance. If a worker gets hurt on your property it could wind up costing a lot more than you bargained for.

Instead, get contractor recommendations from friends, neighbors or relatives. Check references and get documentation of insurance coverage.

And don't put more than 10% down for the job. Mete out the payments gradually as work is done and withhold the final 25% until you're satisfied with the completed project.

6. All else being equal, the best place to invest is a 401(k). Once you've earned the full company match, max out a Roth IRA. Still have money to invest? Put more in your 401(k) or a traditional IRA.
One of the keys to saving for the long run is keeping as much money as possible shielded from taxes. A 401(k) gives you that and more: You also get an immediate tax break, because contributions come out of your paycheck before taxes are withheld. And there's the possibility of a matching contribution from your employer – that's free money.

The federal limit on annual contributions has been increasing gradually, and is $15,000 in 2006. If you're 50 or older, you may contribute an additional $5,000.

With a Roth IRA, you get no immediate tax break, but withdrawals in retirement will be tax-free. You can make at least a partial contribution to a Roth if your modified adjusted gross income is less than $110,000, if you're single, or less than $160,000, if you're married and filing jointly.

7. To figure out what percentage of your money should be in stocks, subtract your age from 120.
Since 1926, stocks have returned an annual average of 10.5 percent, long-term government bonds returned 5.1 percent, and "cash," measured by Treasury bills and other short-term investments, has returned just 3.1 percent. In other words, if you're investing for the long-term, stocks are the place to be. But in the short term, the stock market can be downright dangerous, with much more severe drops than the bond market has.

That's where this rule comes in - the younger you are, the more time you have to recover from stock-market crashes. As you get older, you should gradually move money out of stocks and into bonds.

8. Invest no more than 10% of your portfolio in your company stock - or any single company's stock, for that matter.
In a bear market, it's tough to find a safe-haven – a lot of the stocks in your portfolio will be sinking too. But don't compound the risk by holding too much in any one stock.

The most recent dramatic example of just how serious this "specific-stock" risk can be is Enron, which imploded after its executives allegedly engaged in various acts of malfeasance. But a company with perfectly honest management might fall on hard times too.

And if it's your employer's stock, you're in an even worse position – not only will your portfolio be decimated, but your job could be at risk too.

9. The most you should pay in annual fees for a mutual fund is 1% for a large-company stock fund, 1.3% for any other type of stock fund and 0.6% for a U.S. bond fund.
Running a mutual fund isn't free – companies have to pay for research, managers' salaries, and so on. Those costs are borne by the investors in the funds and get deducted from returns. A percentage point here and there may not sound like much, but a fund manager needs to pick a lot of great stocks to make up for those costs.

10. Aim to build a retirement nest egg that is 25 times the annual investment income you need.
So if you want $40,000 a year to supplement Social Security and a pension, you must save $1 million. This rule is based on the amount that you can safely withdraw from your nest egg in retirement.

The single most effective thing you can do to ensure that your money will last is to start out with a low withdrawal rate of 4 percent, then raise that amount annually to compensate for a cost-of-living increase or inflation.

The reason is that if a bear market hits early in retirement, an enormous loss can put such a big dent in the portfolio that it won't be able to recover in time to benefit when the market rebounds.

11. If you don't understand how an investment works, don't buy it.
There is no shortage of investment products out there. In addition to stocks and bonds, there are exotic hedge funds and insurance products.

Fortunately, you don't have to try and make sense out of them. In fact, you can construct a sensible portfolio with just two index mutual funds – one stock and one bond.

To reach your goals, you don't need to shoot for spectacular returns. Individual investors can outpace the market with moderately above-average returns in good times, as long as they don't lose too much money in bad times.

12. If you're not saving 10% of your salary, you aren't saving enough.
The earlier you start saving, the less you'll need to set aside every year to meet your goals. That's because you allow your money more time to grow -- the gains on your invested savings will build on the prior year's gains. That's the power of compounding, and it's the best way to accumulate wealth.

Saving at least 10% of your annual salary for retirement is recommended, but the older you start saving, the more you'll need to save. If you start at 50, you may need to put away 30% a year and still postpone retirement by a few years.

13. Keep three months' worth of living expenses in a bank savings account or a high-yield money-market fund for emergencies. If you have kids or rely on one income, make it six months'.
An emergency fund is a hassle to build, but you'll be glad you did next time your transmission sputters or your boss hands you a pink slip. Besides curbing spending where you can and setting aside a small amount of your pay every two weeks, there are several ways to build your cash cushion. Some sources to draw on:

  • A bonus or financial gift from a relative
  • Money you get back from a flexible spending account, a transportation reimbursement account or an insurance claim.
  • An extra paycheck. If you're paid every two weeks, you'll get 26 paychecks a year. So in some months you'll get three instead of two. If your fixed monthly expenses don't change, you might be able to set aside one paycheck a year.

14. Aim to accumulate enough money to pay for a third of your kids' college costs. You can borrow the rest or use some of your income to help out when your child is in college.
Most parents have trouble saving enough for their retirement. But they still want to help their children pay for college.

In the struggle to feed your 401(k) and your child's 529, the 401(k) should win out. That's because there are no scholarships for retirement and your children have a lot of funding options, including financial aid, loans and a job. They also can go to an excellent, but less expensive school.

And when they're in college, if you have some extra cash after contributing to your retirement accounts, you can help them pay some of their expenses with it.

15. You need enough life insurance to replace at least five years of your salary – as much as 10 years if you have several young children or significant debts.
Life insurance lets surviving family members maintain something close to the standard of living they enjoyed prior to you or your spouse's death. Stay-at-home spouses also should have life insurance, since they do all sorts of things that you would need to pay someone else to do in their absence.

There are two types of policies:

  • Cash-value: These cover you for your entire life and includes an investment component.
  • Term: These cover you for a specific period of time and provide a death benefit only.

For most people the choice is a no-brainer - the premiums on a term policy are much lower.

16. When you buy insurance, choose the highest deductible you can afford. It's the easiest way to lower your premium.
It's the open secret of the insurance game: File a claim, your premiums go up. For that reason, it's in your interest – as much as possible – to shoulder small damages out of pocket.

For home insurance, raising your deductible from $500 to $1,000 could save you 25% on premiums, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

17. The best credit card is a no-fee rewards card that you pay in full every month. But if you carry a balance, high-interest rates will wipe out the benefits.
If you carry a balance, you may pay a variable interest rate as high as 19%. And if you've been late with payments or used up too much of your credit limit, you may be hit with a penalty rate, which can run north of 30%.

Credit card penalty fees, meanwhile, have been on the rise for years. The average late fee in 2005, for example, was $34, up 162% from $13 in 1995, according to the Government Accountability Office. Over-the-limit fees, meanwhile, were $31, up 138% from $13 during the same period.

So no matter how many airline miles or cash back rebates a no-fee rewards card offers you, it won't be enough to compensate you for your very expensive credit card habit.

18. The best way to improve your credit score is to pay bills on time and to borrow no more than 30% of your available credit.
It also helps to pay off debt rather than moving it around because the ratio of your credit card balance to your credit limit is key.

Say you owe a total of $2,000 on four credit cards, each of which has a $2,000 limit. Your total credit limit is $8,000, of which your total balance ($2,000) accounts for 25%.

If you transfer all your balances to two cards and cancel the other two, your total credit limit is reduced to $4,000, and your $2,000 balance now accounts for 50% of that limit.

Also, don't open new accounts when applying for a loan if possible.

19. Anyone who calls or e-mails you asking for your Social Security number or information about your bank or credit card account is a scam artist.
The scam artist's goal is to steal your money, steal your identity or both. In fact, don't carry anything with your Social Security number on it, and don't offer it to anyone unless it's for tax, employment or credit purposes.

There are other ways scammers and identity thieves can get your valuable financial information – for instance, by hacking into a merchant's system and lifting your (and hundreds of other customers') debit card pin numbers.

So be sure to monitor online bank and brokerage accounts a few times a week, and if you see any suspicious withdrawals or charges, report it to your financial institution.

20. The best way to save money on a car is to buy a late-model used car and drive it until it's junk. A car loses 30% of its value in the first year.
Don't believe your father's old-fashioned warnings about buying used. Buying a "pre-owned car" means you've let someone else drive those expensive early miles.

Do your research, of course, and look for a reliable model. But today's cars can generally be expected to rack up six-digit odometer numbers before experiencing major mechanical breakdowns.

Check ConsumerReports.com for detailed reliability information. Sites like Edmunds.com and Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com can help you narrow down the price you should pay.

21. Lease a new car or truck only if you plan to replace it within two or three years.
Keeping a car at the end of lease-term can cost you thousands more than it would have to simply have bought the car from the get-go.

Leasing does have its place, but it's not right for most people. If you're absolutely certain you don't want the car long-term, leasing keeps your monthly payments low. That's because the payments are based on the actual value the car loses during the time you're driving it. Instead of making payments then getting some money back when you trade the car in, as you do when you finance a purchase, with a lease you just don't pay that money out to begin with.

22. Resist the urge to buy the latest computer or other gadget as soon as it comes out. Wait three months and the price will be lower.
As with cars, electronics cost the most for those who must be first with the latest cool thing. Let the gadget freaks get their fill, then go shopping when the market has calmed.

Also, those first-in-line buyers can have the fun of discovering the annoying bugs, disappointing features and poorly designed interfaces. You can check the user reviews on C-Net and Amazon.com later to find out for yourself without having spent the money.

23. Buy airline tickets early because the cheapest fares are snapped up first. Most seats go on sale 11 months in advance.
Airlines would love it if every passenger would reserve their seat as far in advance as possible. That way, they'd always know how many flights they actually need for each route. So they make it as attractive as possible for people to book early. To punish procrastinators, ticket prices get higher as take-off gets closer.

Up to a point, at least. In the end, the airline just wants to fill every seat. So, if there are a few seats left open at the last minute, you can sometimes find a bargain deal. If you really have to fly, though, don't count on that. Airline bean counters have gotten pretty good at knowing just how many seats they need.

24. Don't redeem frequent flier miles unless you can get more than a dollar's worth of air fare or other stuff for every 100 miles you spend.
You typically need 25,000 miles for a domestic round-trip ticket. If the ticket costs less than $250, you're probably better off paying cash.

Airlines push redeeming miles online and will charge $5 to $15 to speak to a person. But it may be worth it: the airline representative has access to additional inventory on partner airlines.

Your miles stretch further on international flights, which typically require 40,000 to 60,000 miles or more depending on the destination. You want to aim to get $2 worth of airfare for every 100 miles. In other words, for a $1,200 flight to Paris, you'd be getting your money's worth using 60,000 miles.

25. When you shop for electronics, don't pay for an extended warranty. One exception: It's a laptop and the warranty is from the manufacturer.
Most electronics, like PDAs and MP3 players, have few moving parts that are prone to wear. If there's anything defective, you'll probably find out about it within the first few months.

Laptops, on the other hand, have parts like hard drives and big screens that can actually fail over time. Plus, laptops can cost thousands of dollars to replace.

February 6, 2007

10 Websites For Online Stock Traders

CNNMoney.com provides up–to–the–second news on the stock market, technology, jobs and economy, personal finance and more. The site also has articles and commentary that discuss strategy and investing tips from the popular magazines “Fortune,” “Money,” “Business 2.0” and “FSB”.

CBS.MarketWatch.com has the latest news on market data, portfolios, mutual funds and personal finance. You can join a discussion and share information with other investors or look at the Tools and Research page for the statistics on any given stock.

Investopedia.com is a database built for investors. Here you will find articles, a dictionary, tutorials and even a stock trading simulator.

NYSE.com
This is the official website of the New York Stock Exchange—a comprehensive resource for investors and issuers looking for news and information.

AMEX.com
This is the official website of the American Stock Exchange with all of the current information and news.

NASDAQ.com
The official site for the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations. Here you’ll find investor tools, news and more.

StandardandPoors.com
Standard & Poor’s is the world’s leading contributor of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research, data and valuations.

StockCharts.com offers ShartCharts tools to create attractive financial charts, the Scan Engine instantly provides the market’s best investment opportunities and the Chart School is full of educational articles. Though some of this information is only accessible with a paid subscription, this is still a valuable source if you don’t have a subscription.

MoneyCentral.MSN.com
MSN’s MoneyCentral has articles and information on investing basics for the new investor and resources for the seasoned pro. Here, you’ll find current news, market reports and quotes. You can also watch business news clips from CNBC.

Forbes.com —“Home page for the world’s business leaders.” This is a vast library of up–to–date information. You can find anything from stock reports to information on travel to a guide to philanthropy.